OTS - DMSA study: EVERGRANDE - 10 Billion US-Dollar in losses for Asia-Funds (part 1)
2021. November 17. 13:46
Berlin, 17 November, 2021 (APA/OTS) - The Evergrande default and
the China real estate crisis are currently causing around - 10
billion US dollars in losses at the ten largest pension and
investment funds specializing in Asia, with the largest Evergrande
bond exposure of around 1.2 billion US dollars. Of these, US$7
billion have already been incurred in real terms and a further US$2
billion will be realized when insolvency is filed. A further US$158
billion in losses on Evergrande from CDS investments by
international investors is expected.
A recent DMSA study analyzing the top ten Asia-focused pension
and mutual funds with the largest exposure to Evergrande bonds
shows:
Evergrande and general China exposure has led to losses of up
to 21 percent this year in all 10 funds studied; across all 10
funds combined, losses total $7 billion. Current Evergrande bond
prices are about a quarter per dollar (about 25 percent of 100
nominal) and, based on Fitch redemption rates, will fall to 5
percent per $100 upon insolvency. Therefore, a further correction
of 6 percent or $2 billion is expected.
"If Evergrande will be bankcrupt, the above funds would lose $9
billion in total year-to-date. This does not take into account real
estate companies that are still well valued and which could also be
on the verge of insolvency. The funds' losses then exceed the $10
billion mark," explains DMSA senior analyst Dr. Marco Metzler. It
also shows that with only $1.2 billion of reported official
Evergrande bond exposure, the losses are significantly higher than
the nominal bond exposure by a factor of 10. "The difference can
only be explained by possible additional investments in other bonds
from Chinese real estate developers and credit default swaps
(CDS)," analyzes Dr. Metzler. According to a research report by
investment bank Goldman Sachs, the market's CDS exposure to
Evergrande is said to be around $158 billion. "This shows that
extent of the spill-over effects of the Evergrande bankruptcy. In
addition to the $23.7 billion in bonds, another $158 billion would
then be lost," Dr. Metzler summarized.
Valued at $55 trillion, the Chinese real estate market is twice
the size of that in the United States. It generates 29 percent of
China's gross domestic product, compared with 10 to 20 percent in
other nations, and has been called the most important sector of the
global economy. But with the mountain of debt from real estate
developers like Evergrande and funds overweight in real estate
bonds, many are now experiencing dramatic losses.
According to the information available, the Asian High Yield
funds of Fidelity and UBS are the ones with the highest Evergrande
exposure.
Name ParticipationIssued Data Fantasia Data
delivery
pcs. in % delivery Participation Fantasia
======================= ======== ========== ======== =============
=============
FIDELITY - ASIAN HIGH 215.056.3050,91 30.06.2021- 30.09.2021
YIELD
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
UBS - Asian High Yield 171.924.0000,73 30.09.202153.050.000
30.09.2021
USD
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
Ashmore SICAV - 166.656.0000,7 30.09.202128.208.000
30.09.2021
Emerging Markets TR
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
Ashmore SICAV - 140.016.0000,5 30.09.202147.841.000
30.09.2021
Emerging Markets LC
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
iShares USD Asia High 134.439.0000,5 08.11.20212.300.000 08.11.2021
Yield Bond ETF
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
PIMCO Asia High Yield 111.300.0000,47 30.06.202117.400.000
30.06.2021
Bond Fund
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
BlackRock - Asian Tiger 88.589.0000,37 31.05.202138.535.000 31.05.2021
Bond
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
Fidelity - Global Multi 76.007.6400,32 31.08.2021- 30.09.2021
Asset Income
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
Eastspring Investments 58.950.0000,25 30.09.202148.450.000 30.09.2021
- Asian Bond
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
AB FCP I - Global High 28.460.0000,12 30.09.2021- 30.09.2021
Yield Portfolio
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
1.191.397.945 235.784.000
----------------------- -------- ---------- -------- -------------
-------------
Participation on Evergrande and Fantasia Bonds
Looking at the average ratings in the affected funds, the
Fidelity Asian High Yield Fund has a weight of 34.2 percent
invested in real estate with an average rating of BB. This has lost
17.3 percent in value this year. The UBS Asian High Yield Fund,
with an average rating of BB-, holds 45.7 percent in real estate
bonds. This has lost 20.8 percent in value this year.
"The top ten funds hold $1.2 billion in Evergrande bonds," said
Dr. Marco Metzler. "However, there is another $236 million exposure
to other real estate companies such as Fantasia, and it is quite
clear that the funds under consideration are overweight the real
estate sector. They hold up to 45 percent in real estate bonds,
which may now be their undoing." (continues)